California fires, the patterns and what to do about it.
We here in BC and most of Canada know the risk that wildfires pose to homes and communities. We have had many of our own fires and know all too well the look of a smoke-filled sky, with that evil orange glow. Now fires are raging through California. The sky is filled with smoke, same orange glow, but there is something different about these fires. It’s nothing to do with the actual fires themselves, but it’s all of the news surrounding them and how that news has divided people.
I am writing this to explain things from a builder’s perspective. A no nonsense, brass tacks point of view with 3 goals in mind.
Fair warning this is a longish read, if you just want to protect your home from wildfires and other weather events, or you just want a really good builder visit Chiliwap.ca. We also have videos, for people like me, who are more of a visual learner. Now that we have that sorted, lets dive back into what has people divided in California. There are two sides to every story and that is clear when it comes to these California fires. On one side Trump is speaking out claiming Governor Newsom “refused to sign the water restoration declaration”, that he said would have directed millions of gallons of water to areas now burning, alleging he prioritized a small fish, called a smelt, over residents. Newsom’s office in response saying, “There is no such document as the water restoration declaration – that is pure fiction.” Like many things in politics and news these days it’s hard to know where the truth lies.
In reality, playing the blame game, or worse, listening to politicians play that game, is pointless and a waste of time. To me it has always gone against my instincts to rely solely on government entities, or anyone for that matter, for essentials like drinking water, fire fighting or flood prevention. Yes, there should be water in hydrants, yes there should be clean access to drinking water for everyone, yes, the governments should be adding to firefighting budgets not reducing them. No argument here but is that how things have gone? Spot the pattern?
The fires in California were predictable. I believe that fires here are also predictable. In fact, I guarantee another wildfire will happen in BC and California. The patterns are recognizable.
This is not meant to scare anyone; it is meant to point out the patterns. The good news is, I know for certain, there are things you can do, to protect your home, your family and what you love. I’m not saying governments are bad, or people are bad, I look for the patterns and find ways to mitigate the risk.
Before the fire, California, like most areas in BC, was, and is, known to be prone to wildfires. We know this through indicators like history, climate, winds, geography, vegetation, human activity, building codes etc. California has a history of fires, with over 20,000 wildfires recorded between 1878-2020.
It is also important to note that because the city of LA is built on a plateau, water has to be pumped up to reservoirs to supply water to homes, hydrants etc. Think of the water system like a tree. The trunk is the big main that comes from the lower reservoir where the water is pumped from. There are branches off the main that feed smaller reservoirs further up the line that pressurize the bigger branches, which then continue onto smaller branches, that eventually lead to a home or hydrant. The pumps moving the water up the hill could not keep up. The system was not designed for the demand required to fight a fire of this size. When you hear hydrants or portions of main were shut off it was likely to prevent back siphonage, but that gets somewhat technical, so I will leave that there. Bottom line is 1 litre of water = 1 kg. That is a ton of weight to move up a hill, and frankly no single water system in the world is designed to meet the capacity needed to fight these fires.
It is really important to note how key water is for life, fighting fires, and that it falls from the sky, on everyone’s roof, or yard, for free, often more than we want it to.
These indicators however do not do a good job of compiling all the data needed to assess property risks. Compiling all this data would be a real pain and nearly impossible, especially when you consider the size of all the cities, towns, communities that we live in. Luckily insurance companies do it for us. These guys have been in business a long time, and there is a reason for that. They know how to properly assess risk so that they can provide a service and make money as well. They are expert statisticians, utilizing super computers and super smart people to compile all data, past and present in ways unimaginable. They do this to assess risks to the buildings that they are insuring. They know the odds of properties being destroyed by fires, floods or other means. They use these odds to set the price of your premium. Remember, like any business, they need to make money.
Knowing this, if we look at where insurance prices are highest, increasing or worse not attainable at all, these are the areas where disaster is most likely to strike. Between 2020 and 2022 insurance companies in California, declined to renew over 2.8 million insurance policies. This may come across malicious, but where would the insurance companies be if they had not declined to renew? Likely bankrupt. The California government knew this, the state offers a “last resort” insurance plan called FAIR, which is a high price, bad terms, poor option. So, it’s clear, they knew fire risks were high, but they cut fire budgets, while offering insurance in event a structure burns down. This is why I don’t rely on governments.
Similar things are happening throughout BC. The Insurance Bureau of Canada says 2024 was the most expensive year on record and warns that insurance rates are likely to increase significantly. If your insurance premiums are going up, this is a good clue that you need to take actions to protect your home.
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